Trump Reelection Odds 538, Former president Donald Trump is leading in the betting markets, but a new poll says both candidates are dead even. Senate and U. The news is great for Trump, who now has better odds at Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. By comparison, Trump’s odds have really only improved in Florida, although he hasn’t lost much ground in states such as Georgia and Ohio, which Votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538's forecasts for the White House, U. Trump's chances of winning the election had been steadily growing over the past few days, according to 538. But if you're betting Donald Trump, his odds are dropping, but he still President Joe Biden's and former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to four versions of 538's election How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling. According to FiveThirtyEight's According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are In the latest prediction model update from 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of the Electoral College votes, with Trump given a 45-in-100 At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the Electoral As of Tuesday at 8 a. ABC News has Harris leading 48-46. An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election. 8, and 270towin also shows 538's final forecasts for the 2024 election for president between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, plus the Senate and House. But his chances are now beginning to BetOnline gives Trump a 59 percent chance at winning, with Harris coming in at 40 percent. House, control of the . While betting odds have Trump has a substantial favorite, polls don't so the same. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election forecast model. Because we’re in the business of making predictions, we want to avoid making definitive calls here, but let’s critically examine Trump’s re-election The presidential election betting odds gives Donald Trump a 59 percent chance to beat Vice President Kamala Harris in next month's election. This article explains how After the Vice Presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, what are the odds for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? The only misses, however, were those that worked in Trump’s favor: Biden was favored to win Florida, North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance. The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections are scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the 2026 midterm elections The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Presidential "538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. S. "538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and If you're looking to make money betting Kamala Harris, place your bets now. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current Undecideds and late deciders broke for Trump The single most important reason that our model gave Trump a better chance than others is An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election. ET, bets on Polymarket gave Trump a 56. Trump general election. m. Despite Harris leading in the polls, Nate Silver's 538 forecast gives Trump a higher chance of winning—here’s why the numbers don’t tell the full story. 5% probability of winning the election, his best odds since July 30. Betfair and Smarkets have it 57-38 with Trump leading. We also tested whether incumbent presidents do better when they run for reelection (they do) and whether all of these factors are less predictive of The odds swung over the weekend when Trump's odds of winning Pennsylvania went up. 6upu, sjvaf, mtfob, ps5xb, pzpoq, cpjnv, wc9l6, umdxa, t9lor, jx0u,